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Heat vs. Cavaliers prediction: how were betting this Eastern matchup as Miami seeks a bounce-back
Cleveland aims to sweep a back-to-back in Florida
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Ricky Rubio (13) goes down as Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) drives to the basket during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Wednesday, March 8, 2023, in Miami.
We have a Cavaliers vs. Heat prediction as the teams face off in Miami for the second time in three days.
It was a tight contest in the previous meeting, with Cleveland winning 104-100 as a 1.5-point road favorite.
Thus, beating Miami for the second time in as many games certainly wont be easy.
In this preview, well dig deep into this head-to-head matchup and explore the difficulty ahead for the Cavaliers against this stout Miami defense.
Spread:CLE +2 (-110) vs. MIA -2 (-110)
Moneyline: CLE (+108) vs. MIA (-126)
Total: Over 212.5 (-110) Under 212.5 (-110)
I had to do a double take at the NBA schedule when I saw Miami was playing the same opponent again.
Just before Wednesdays game against Cleveland, the Heat had back-to-back home games against the Hawks.
Those games against Atlanta were the only wins for Miami on this home stand, which wraps up Friday night.
However, the Heat have been much better at home, as evidenced by their 21-13 mark vs. 14-19 on the road.
Theres no question that its been a disappointing season for this Heat team thats the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference despite leading the Southeast Division by 1.5 games.
Miami could win the division yet still need to advance through the playoff play-in tournament. However, Miamis elite defense still gives them a chance against even the best teams in the league.
Per TeamRankings, the Heat rank fifth overall in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.7 points per 100 possessions.
Miami can also be a difficult opponent based on its style of play. The Heat almost grind games to a halt as they rank 29th in pace with 100.3 possessions per game.
Both teams are actually quite similar in that Cleveland ranks second in defensive efficiency (106.7 points allowed per 100 possessions) and 30th in pace with 99.8 possessions per game.
However, its on offense where we see the most significant difference between the teams, as Cleveland ranks 10th in efficiency (112.2 points per 100 possessions), while Miami is 26th (108 points per 100 possessions).
Nonetheless, with Miami getting another look at Cleveland in back-to-back games, I like their chances of getting a split here.
Considering that this could be a low-scoring game based on the total, I think the pace benefits Miami because fewer possessions may restrict Cleveland from getting too far out in front.
When you look atNBA.coms clutch statswhere the scoring margin is within 5 points with five or fewer minutes left in the game, Miami is 26-21 compared to Cleveland, which is 19-18.
Moreover, according to theKiller Sports database, Miamis 55-41 (57.3%) ATS in games where its playing the same team in the second leg after losing the first meeting.
In the second leg of Miamis series with Atlanta, it made some adjustments and exploded for 130 points of offense.
Thus, I wouldnt rule out a similar scenario in front of a lively crowd on Friday night.
I think this is an excellent spot to add a bit of insurance in the form of a same-game parlay, and I recommend combining Miami at +4.5 (-230) points with the over at 209.5 (-150) to improve our odds to +129.
This content was created by a Boston.com partner. The editorial department of Boston.com had no role in writing, production, or display. Boston.com may be compensated for publishing this content and/or receive a commission on purchases of products or services described within the post.
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